Polls a year out are meaningless. Obama was also “losing” at this point before his re-election.
Nationally, Democrats have been beating polls by 9+ points at the ballot boxe since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
I completely agree but I would just like to point out that Glenn Greenwald is also a massive shithead.
Yes, he absolutely is, but he was also correct in that particular assessment.
Nationally, Democrats have been beating polls by 9+ points at the ballot box since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
It’s really surprised to me how quickly this dropped from political discourse and analysis. We’ve had several off year elections and the midterms now where Republicans have underperformed. Polls have largely seemed to miss this trend.
There’s a lot of reasons to be hopeful right now. Republicans can’t control their messaging on abortion, and it’s very clear voters are unhappy about bans. Yet, Republicans in the House are only barely aware of it, and in the Senate you’d think they hadn’t seen any results at all. Tuberville’s continued hold for abortion reasons, while voters have made it clear anti abortion advocates can go fuck themselves, is remarkably visible. I don’t think it’s a mistake that Republicans are signaling they’ll bypass him if he doesn’t budge. Elections a month ago make it clear it’s a millstone around their necks.
We have an advantage to capitalize on, but it only matters if we press the advantage. We have to show up en masse to the election.
Obama was also “losing” at this point before his re-election
Obama was about 46% and trending upwards at this point, Biden is 37% and trending downward. This is a pretty nice visualization of historical presidential approval ratings plotted with Biden’s. Takeway is while other presidents have tanked way harder (Nixon, Dubya, HW), Trump and Biden are basically tied for historical unpopularity on a consistent basis. Biden did hit mid 50s as he came in to office where most presidents get a bump, Trump didn’t even reach 50.
Same paper that just ran the “Women should stop shunning Trump supporters in their dating pool” article. I guess that’s so they’ll be less likely to abused under the pending dictatorship?
Same author?
Because papers often run a variety of opinion pieces…
Good point and probably not, but I’m too lazy to look right now.
Edited to add: Presumably same editorial team, so the seeming dissonance between the two articles isn’t lessened much by having different authors.
It really depends a lot. If it’s something by the editorial board itself, then it’s a very jarring difference. But you can have writers with polar opposite viewpoints in editorials. It used to be nice from a reader perspective to get that variety, but then the right went wacko.
That said, I do think it’s weird the section editor would approve something like “women need to date more conservatives”. Maybe they take the approach of not being responsible for what their authors say, but that crosses enough lines that it’s odd they didn’t step in.
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It’s only inevitable if we do nothing
So pretty much inevitable then. :(
Kind of like Sandy Hook and Uvalde. Welcome to America.
Polls are meaningless when nobody answers the phone and/or they call people who don’t actually vote. Kids today know to shut up and beat the shitbags at the polls. We are collectively punishing the Republicans for 40 years of attacks against our society.
There is a reason that no poll I’ve ever responded to has ever straight up asked me who I plan on voting for in the next election.
They can spin your feelings, They can’t spin a simple yes/no question.
Dang I didn’t notice that before. I was polled once and they only asked me what I thought of my current elected officials not who I planned to vote for.
Guess it wouldn’t get clicks if they were honest
There are graduating seniors in high-school this year. That group of unregistered voters needs to be coaxed to register, and vote. They need easy, step by step directions. They need to understand their new power of citizenship. They can be tried as adults. They should know who the sheriff is. They should know its an elected position. They need to learn this shit, and most likely it’s not gonna happen in school. Please ticktock or whatever. Make it viral.
It’s a good piece and I think the analysis is largely accurate. But there’s one thing I think Kagan missed: Trump isn’t the only would-be dictator who could take power. He lists DeSantis and Haley as the closest competitors to Trump within the Republican Party, but he doesn’t point out that even if, by some miracle, one of them becomes the party nominee, they would assume the very same dictatorial powers Trump is threatening to wield. Neither of them is going to defend democracy when offered the reins of tyranny, and both could easily hold power for decades. Trump maybe has a single decade at most.
The problem isn’t simply Trump wanting to be President for Life. The problem is that the path has been cleared for any Republican to assume that role the next time one is elected. Project 2025 won’t work for Trump only. The next time we have a Republican President, expect it to be the last time we have a fair election.
Trump isn’t the only would-be dictator who could take power.
honestly I think only trump has what it takes to form the cult of personality necessary to take over. he’s got the charisma to entrance 35% the country. DeSantis is more temperamentally fit to be the lieutenant you send in to do massacres than a figurehead leader
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The fact that many Americans might prefer other candidates, much ballyhooed by such political sages as Karl Rove, will soon become irrelevant when millions of Republican voters turn out to choose the person whom no one allegedly wants.
Until now, Republicans and conservatives have enjoyed relative freedom to express anti-Trump sentiments, to speak openly and positively about alternative candidates, to vent criticisms of Trump’s behavior past and present.
Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus, the Wilson administration shut down newspapers and magazines critical of the war; Franklin D. Roosevelt rounded up Japanese Americans and placed them in camps.
There is every reason to believe that active-duty troops and reservists are likely to be disproportionately more sympathetic to a newly reelected President Trump than to the “Radical Left Thugs” supposedly causing mayhem in the streets of their towns and cities.
The power shift at the federal level, and the tone of menace and revenge emanating from the White House, will likely embolden all kinds of counter-resistance even in deep-blue states, including violent protests.
As Mitt Romney recounts in McKay Coppins’s recent biography, Republican members of Congress contemplating voting for Trump’s impeachment and conviction feared for their physical safety and that of their families.
The original article contains 6,008 words, the summary contains 201 words. Saved 97%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
This is stupid fear-mongering horse s*** that ignores all the steps Americans are taking to fight against Trump being elected, and ignoring that they voted him out 3 years ago.
Stupid b*******.
People took steps against him in 2016 as well. And voting him out previously gives no guarantee of anything.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
Polling is bullshit, but to the degree that it isn’t, it isn’t looking great. This isn’t some guarantee that Trump will lose. The boomers that vote republican do so EVERY election. The people who vote against them aren’t so reliable in comparison.
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Bezos’ pile of money is so big if he got out today his great-grandchildren will have no fucking idea how to spend all their money. He has no reason to care what anyone fucking thinks until they start breaking out the forks and knives.
Billionaires will be fine. They have built their doomsday bunkers and they’re waiting for the dictators to genocide everyone else so they can crawl out into the sunlit depopulated paradise.
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And yet people keep telling me that Biden needs to lose so that Democrats can be “taught a lesson.”
When does this brinkmanship dilemma stop occurring? How long are dems gonna get a blank check to spit in our faces because republicans are a looming threat? Is MAGA gonna be gone in 2028? 2032? When is the income gap gonna stop accelerating? Or emissions? When are houses gonna be affordable, or education? What about the situation is supposed to improve if dems win 2028?
Voting for local elections is more important than president. Some flavor of socialist could win a local election. You are fooling yourself if you think a socialist could win presidency in the upcoming election.
Also why should Democrats care about someone that doesn’t vote? What you want them to lose 2 votes for you…continuing to not vote?
Who said anything about not voting?
Voting records? I don’t know you, you don’t know me. Great 😃👍 most people don’t vote. You play football, you’re going to get concussed. You involve yourself with politics, you’re going to have to come to terms with people doing things you don’t want done. You’re the only you. Other people close to you won’t have 100% the same politics. Waiting till you clone yourself will solve nothing.
If you want to make the changes that you want you’ll need to get people who don’t vote to vote. If all that happens is they vote during the presidency and know nothing about anyone else, then they are probably going to at best vote down ballot. Dems are better than Republicans. If my only choice is between Dems and Republicans, I’m going to vote Democrat. There was an election recently that I voted in. The only vote that was happening was for mayor. It was between Dems and Republican. There is no alternative.
Winging about how much the Dems suck is going to motivate no one. People aren’t even going to get angry enough at the Dems when you say they suck to do anything. They’re not going to protest, they’re not going to vote, they’re not going to get involved. You are at best wasting your breath when you say the sky is blue.
Argue for mandated voting. Argue for something different than first past the post. Argue for a politician. Hell, argue for a fascist takeover so debate bros can “dunk” on you, they’re at least doing more that what you’ve put here.
The things you complain about will keep happening until you DO something. Argue about doing something.
It sounds like this rambling doesnt involve me.
im voting for someone that supports ranked choice.Which would be who? For what position?
If the answer is “no one” then why should any elected person care about you?
probly Jill Stein. Unless someone better that also supports ranked choice or proportional representation shows up.
believes Wi-Fi is bad for health.
Wants to starve people and drive up food prices because she doesn’t understand what GMO means, or doesn’t care to clarify.
Green party endorses fracking?
Suspect stance on Ukraine
Suspect stance on vaccinesI’m not saying biden has a better aggregate stance. I am saying you have a chance in a liberal government. But you don’t in a conservative one.
You’re spinning your wheels, and you’re going to go nowhere. Making people only pay attention to president is one of the best psyops
spoiler
(no evidence, it’s just funnier to believe)
::: that the Dems made so people like you vote so they stay in power.I seriously thought you had a local candidate who was going to push for that. There have been several local elections where they had ran on and implemented something besides first past the post system.
If you want change in a system this big there are only 2 routes. Slow and voting local so your party gains steam, or violence. I’m not going to advocate for violence.
What do you think the outcome of voting for her is going to be.
You get downvoted for actually expecting something from your vote. I’m sorry some 1/100000000 chance of a president becoming a dictator isn’t going to make me want to vote for someone who doesn’t want to fix economic problems for the middle class. Do better and winning the presidency would be a cakewalk do the bare minimum and possibly lose to Donald Trump.
As with Napoleon, who spoke of the glory of France but whose narrow ambitions for himself and his family brought France to ruin, Trump’s ambitions, though he speaks of making America great again, clearly begin and end with himself.
As the author keeps comparing Trump to Napoleon and Hitler, I can’t help but wonder if maybe the US is due a conflagration. At what point do we admit that the American experiment returned a null result?
